Probability of commercial success is different from probability of clinical success

Atebion BDS believes that early commercial insight to a disease target product profile (DTPP) or a candidate’s target profile (TPP) is a prerequisite for success, whether this relates to completing an in- or out-license or a successful product launch

High quality techno-commercial evaluations represent a core component of all our services

Evaluations from Atebion BDS provide the following components;

  • Disease area overview
    • Clinical need and its evolution
    • Leading drugs and profiles
    • Key success factors and barriers to success
    • Regional needs and differences
  • Pipeline assessment and competitive landscape
  • Sales and forecasts
    • WW. by Region and/or key market
  • S&M approaches and costs
  • Market overview
    • Current and evolving
    • Impact of new entries and genericisation
    • Emerging markets vs established


Atebion BDS can offer early insight market research to support commercial evaluations

Probability of commercial success is different from probability of clinical success

Importance of appropriate, detailed forecasting in investment decision making

It is just as important to conduct a high-quality disease-area forecast, including the impact of a product with the proposed TPP, to decide whether to progress development of a pre-clinical or FTIM investment opportunity as it is to decide whether to invest in a phase III programme. Of course, the level of investment is much larger for Phase III, but it is important to understand the core assumptions that determine the likely return on investment at an early stage, rather than waste time, resource and money ahead of a ‘no go’ decision based on commercial factors.

The quality of techno-commercial assessment should remain consistent through a products development lifecycle - although, of course, the focussed elements behind the assessment may vary. It should not be true that a commercial evaluation moves from a broad, high level ‘US, EU5 & 20% RoW uplift’ view at FTIM to a detailed country by country forecast by Phase III – much of the information required ahead of launch is also necessary for an informed decision at early stage of development. Simply, it is the robustness of the forecast that is enhanced as probability of clinical success increases. Consequently, a commercial evaluation is refined over time, becoming firmer at each investment decision point.

Quality techno-commercial evaluations underpin all aspects of drug-related Business Planning: to help determine appropriate levels of investment & portfolio priorities; in-licensing candidate selection and out-licensing deal-making packages; defining sales optimisation strategies.

Over the past couple of years Dr. Evetts has provided the senior management team at ASLAN with comprehensive Pharmaceutical/biotechnology analysis reports on a wide range of global and regional therapeutic markets. These reports were timely, exhaustive, intelligently structured and aided the senior management team make informed in-licensing decisions. I highly recommend Dr. Evetts as a Pharmaceutical/biotechnology business consultant

Jeff Tomlinson; Chief Business Officer & Founder, ASLAN Pharmaceuticals